Holland’s much earlier exit from lockdown makes it somewhere the UK can look to for a hint of our own future.

I have done it many times before, but this time flying across the North Sea felt like crossing Checkpoint Charlie: from a dark, angry Heathrow into a bright, vibrant Schiphol. Mid-June we had had enough of Matt Hancock, lockdowns and the decelerating easing of rules, so we decided to spend the summer in Amsterdam. When we arrived on 21 June, the lockdown was already lifted. Pubs and restaurants were open with enlarged outside terraces and all shops without the yellow-vest stewards and silly signs.

Holland’s covid response could be described as like Sweden’s but with an official, ‘intelligent’ lockdown that stressed individual responsibility rather than oppressive rules. The official death toll is 6,159 (equivalent to 23,275 for a UK-sized population), with 97% aged over 60 years and only four under-30 deaths (more young people drowned in the sea this summer). The difference from the UK and other more restrictive countries, in my view, is that the people are no longer afraid and have accepted they have to live with this virus. There are generally no face masks on the streets (but they are useful for identifying tourists). Most people worked through the lockdown and took their traditional summer holidays by car or sailing boat. Despite the efforts of the green-left mayor to enforce face masks and restart the panic, one could argue that Amsterdam may hold some clues about how life after lockdown hysteria may look elsewhere.

The first casualty is tourism. When we arrived, Amsterdam felt like the early noughties, so calm without loud, misbehaving tourists. Every Amsterdammer loved it and the politicians have taken notice. For example, the enforced mask wearing in the red-light district might even be construed as an attempt to limit tourism. Even though air tourists (Brits) have mostly been replaced by car tourists (Germans), the overall number still feels down. Hotels, tourist bars and restaurants are struggling and will probably face further restrictive measures going forward. The winners are those city neighbourhoods unaffected by tourism and where the city’s inhabitants live and work. This fits very well with my recent discussions with WeWork, which has been looking for offices in these locations, away from touristy areas.

The second casualty is public transport – on which masks are compulsory, hence most people I met avoid it and prefer to walk, cycle or drive. The costs of running the system are huge, so the deficits must be enormous. The big winner seems to be the car. I have never seen so many German cars in central Amsterdam, and the roads to the beach are jammed. Bikes rule more than ever, though, and with these new e-bikes it is becoming a dangerous affair to cross the street.

Again, central locations that depend on high traffic volumes are affected the most. The Kalverstraat shopkeepers were pushing for a mask rule as they hoped this would remove the 1.5m rule and bring in more tourists. What they found was that the 1.5m rule is government policy and masks are not, so they now have 1.5m plus masks. No surprise the parallel street, Rokin, has never been so busy. Shopping centres on the outskirts are meanwhile buzzing with maskless people, showing that not all retail is dead.

The third casualty is employment. Most businesses have used up their reserves to get through the ten-week lockdown and have been making deals on rents. For example, Heineken, which supplies beer to many pubs on an exclusive basis, has offered to share the burden: one month’s loss for Heineken, one for the landlord and one for the operator. Classic Dutch polder model. Nevertheless, as ongoing business continues but investment and projects are postponed, major job losses are forecast that will adversely affect demand for office space and may shift the power to employers, potentially reversing the perks prompted by the ‘war for talent’.

Offices were open throughout lockdown, but many chose to work from home. Almost everyone told me they miss the social interaction and now want to go back. Like in England, most people who like working from home are in safe, salaried positions and own nice homes, while most young people still go to the office. Not many believe that WFH will be the new norm (your home would be in eastern Poland and your salary the local equivalent if it were so), but most think a new system of flexible hours alternating between office and home will arrive – remember Holland has one of the highest numbers of part-time workers already.

On the other hand, the expat and start-up markets, which are massive in Amsterdam, have taken a step back but now are proving their resilience by rebounding strongly. If we combine this with the preference for more flexible hours to avoid rush hour, then a more flexible and cost-effective way to use office space is required. In Amsterdam, WeWork and Spaces are already quite dominant, and their technology-driven approach is probably the closest to what the ‘new office’ will look like. A shake-out is expected in the co-working space market, but the survivors could be stronger than ever.
The final casualty is the Brexit negotiations, which now point to a hard Brexit. Most Dutch have mentally said goodbye and moved on. The European Medicines Agency has landed in Amsterdam from Canary Wharf and its 900 employees have moved in. At this point there are more Brits in Holland than there are Dutch in the UK, so there is a bit of London here now too.

Talking about the UK capital, if these observations are an indication of the future, London will face a harder battle. Firstly, the UK lockdown is prolonged; secondly, fear has not yet receded; and finally, London is much more reliant on public transport. Maybe a dark vision, but what being back here in Amsterdam has taught me is that people make the economy. And as a Londoner in Amsterdam, I can tell you the denizens of those two cities are very much alike: they don’t take no for an answer and are very creative commercially. Londoners will find a way to rise from the crisis; they have done it before and will do it again.