Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
China needs us to buy its stuff more than we need its stuff, but it's all just noise relative to the stuff that really matters. I am going to going to offer two somewhat...
No signs of capital flight yet. Just two quick charts on the “Fade America, Long Europe” trade that’s become de jour. The basic premise is that big bad Trump is...
There's a far more plausible explanation, and if anything, AI will be a job-creator. “AI is taking white collar jobs” is a thing people are saying, but they’re very probably...
Short post today. This is just a fun chart that (a) speaks to the difficulty of forecasting, and also probably (b) the incentives inherent to sell-side research. Earnings...
In case you missed it, Trump put the screws to China, while giving the rest of the world another 90 days to negotiate. Negotiate what? Unclear, but Random Walk thinks it’s...
Transaction data, hotel bookings, value shoppers, booze hounds, student borrowers . . . we got it all checking in on the Almighty Consumer, tariff uncertain, or nay? transaction...