Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
The decision by the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee to reduce Bank Rate from 5.25% to 5% on 31 July was clearly a nail-biting affair, succeeding by the narrowest of...
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Like a pillion passenger leaning in the opposite direction to the rider, UK banks’ behaviour has become perverse and dangerous. Banks are engaged in an elaborate risk management...
Despite the recovery of energy prices and its reflection in transport inflation, there remains a net disinflationary bias among advanced economies as core inflation rates drift lower.
While the overall picture is clearly disinflationary, notably in Asia ex-Japan and US, core inflation is stickier in Europe and Japan. It is a concern that energy prices may have bottomed out and annual comparisons could turn unfavourable later in the year. Labour markets remain very tight and there is little sign of wage deceleration.
On 11 May, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate to 4.5%, a level last observed in October 2008. Since November last year, the Bank has also been reversing its...