Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
Investment themes and trends
Generally I am only a modest believer in the role of sentiment in foreign affairs. Things like pride, hurt feelings, etc can make a difference (more than realists understand, for sure), but their long term impact is usually small. As such, short term emotional reactions to specific events are...
In case you missed it, Trump put the screws to China, while giving the rest of the world another 90 days to negotiate. Negotiate what? Unclear, but Random Walk thinks it’s...
“The finest steel goes through the hottest fires. It feels no pain, no pity, no remorse, but stays sharp and ready.” After the last few weeks of tariffs, Trump and tech...
"So, what’s the state of the market?” The big question. The questioner doesn’t really normally want to hear “well, it depends on which area/sector/property type”. So, we have our...
Every year, I write one navel-gazing post about what I do for a living. Past instalments include “Noah Smith’s writing advice”, “How to write a successful Substack”, “How to be...
Today’s letter will explore Greenland’s potential as a real estate market by profiling a new real estate investment firm, Terra Boreale Ventures, which seeks to capitalise on these opportunities by sponsoring real estate projects at the fringes of American adventurism.
Transaction data, hotel bookings, value shoppers, booze hounds, student borrowers . . . we got it all checking in on the Almighty Consumer, tariff uncertain, or nay? transaction...
Sometimes reality bites back at Trump, but not always. During the 2024 campaign, the stock market typically reacted favourably to good polling news for Donald Trump, and it...
Some readers may be familiar with Liu Cixin’s award-winning 2008 science fiction novel The Three-Body Problem or its 2024 Netflix adaptation. Either version provides a fitting...
More join the "healthcare is the jobmaker" chorus, but there's more than just 'told you so'. healthcare jobs replaced all the manufacturing jobs (much to the benefit of women and...