Serious investment thinking that doesn’t take itself too seriously.
Leading economists share their thoughts on money, rates and prices
Bond markets are on fire again. Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring. Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small dislocations and monetize them with leverage hoping volatility would...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold their federal funds rate target in the 5.25 to 5.5 percent range on Tuesday. The move was widely expected, with financial...
The Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has produced its report on the Bank of England. Correctly, it is critical of the Bank, but it could have been much more so....
If asked to separate forecasting consistency from obstinacy, my reply is categorical. Consistency is sticking to an economic prediction based on fundamentals; an outlook one must...
On 10 March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank failed, triggering fears of a new financial crisis. Over the next three weeks, US bank share prices fell by 14% and regional banks fared...
About ten years ago, the average residential rent in the UK was about £750/month, today it’s closer to £1,300 which is a 5.6% CAGR.
Despite the recovery of energy prices and its reflection in transport inflation, there remains a net disinflationary bias among advanced economies as core inflation rates drift lower.
The Bank of England (BoE) has been strongly criticised for failing to predict the surge in inflation. Had it done so, it could have reacted more quickly and prevented...
Now, I find myself having endless chats on internships, which I am told as line items on CVs, pay generous dividends. Meetings start by me asking the aspirant intern their...
Rents have gone up, and they keep going up. This is a boon for the growing BTR/Multi-Family sector in the UK. However, the question is, how far can this really go? Eventually rents must hit a limit where further increases are just not possible.