It’s 2020 and YYY’s value-add fund is in acquisition mode. The target return is set at 13%, and the manager presents a deal; a three-year business plan with 60% leverage and a CapEx budget of 40% of the capital value. The location? An emerging area in Hamburg, with a yield offering a 25bps premium...
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LATEST ARTICLES
The Analyst
US homes have been getting more affordable since the 70s
When the shortage bros accidentally demonstrate that zoning is a trivial part of the story. Random Walk will make it two antagonistic posts in a row. Enjoy. housing shortage...
The Economist
A fresh look at bond markets
Bond markets are on fire again. Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring. Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the...
The Fund Manager
Making money in real estate stocks in 2025
I wrote a column on Vornado (VNO) as a buy at 18 in Sep'22 as it was slammed by the pandemic, its debt load and the Fed's draconian rate hikes. So VNO's price ascribed a $450 a...
Head Of Research
Why operational real estate should be on investors ‘ radars
Operational real estate is increasingly on investors' radars, but it often remains misunderstood. If you are used to traditional commercial real estate, operational assets seem...
The Economist
2025 will be a monumental year for global FX
Whatever the “global economy” happened to look like in “their time”, there have always been nations/City States, determined to expand & become overarching dominant...
The Economist
Bitcoin? Some predict $750k! My guess is $25,000
"Whom the Gods Intend to Destroy… They first make mad.” Bitcoin is either the greatest thing ever, or a complete Ponzi. Take your pick. The Shills cite multiple reasons its going...
Head Of Research
The best-case scenario for Trump’s second term
“God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” — Otto von Bismarck Happy Thanksgiving, folks! A friend asked me to write an optimistic...
The Analyst
Commercial real estate turning a corner (and other real estate charts)
Commercial real estate turning a corner? CMBS special servicing rates keep rising (and that’s good) net-new distress is smaller conditions are getting Sloos desiderata on REITs,...
Head Of Research
UK pension reform and Real estate
This article is a brief update on the one in the previous edition, Challenging times for UK institutional capital. Even before the change of government in July, UK institutional...