Some of you may remember Steven Bradbury, the Australian short-track speed skater, in the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City. The unlikely finalist –  he’d snuck through the semi-final after the defending champion fell three bends from the end and two other rivals collided – found himself up against the best of the sport at the highest level. To put this into context, Australia had never won a Winter Olympic medal of any colour, ever!

With a lap to go, the plucky Aussie found himself half a lap behind, but importantly still on his feet. The Chinese and South Korean athlete fell, followed by the Canadian and then, most shockingly of all, the American favourite completed a quadruple pile-up. Bradbury slowly glided around the final corner and found himself the most unexpected winner of a major title at any Olympics. For a while, ‘doing a Bradbury’ entered the common vernacular to mean an unexpected or unusual success.

While the presidential campaign was not fought on ice, there were certainly enough places to slip up during 2020. A year before the election the chances of a Biden victory appeared slim to most political commentators. The large number of Democrat challengers saw, perhaps, someone who had run for election as far back as 1988 and once again in 2008 and might once more fall by the wayside. Instead, it was the others, most tellingly Bernie Sanders on 8 April, who one by one found themselves cast aside by Democrat voters looking for an individual who could overcome Trump.

The election was of course held in the shadow of covid-19, with the two main focus areas of the incumbent being the economy and the alleged untrustworthiness of his opponent – the latter being along the lines of the campaign he ran successfully against Hillary Clinton in his 2016 victory. This time around, all of the good news stories he could point to – the economy, incredibly low unemployment and a booming stock market – were all blown away by the hurricane-like pandemic.

Tax cuts, a deregulatory approach and a general America First stance helped push up the stock market through the first three years of the Trump presidency. All this alongside record low levels of unemployment. Throughout the election, polling suggested, voters continued to trust Trump with the economy more than they did Biden. The extra dollar in the pocket, the feeling that America was focused on driving growth for American individuals and businesses, proved attractive for many voters. Incumbency has also been a powerful indicator of the presidency. Not since George Bush Snr was beaten by Bill Clinton 28 years earlier had we seen a one-term president.

The pandemic, and the response to it by the Trump administration, created a window of opportunity or at the very least a much clearer path to the winning line than might have been expected. All the positive news about the economy, the unemployment rate, all blown away by the 24-hour news about the unstoppable march of the covid-19 virus throughout the US. The number of voters resolutely behind President Trump no matter what would prove to be too low bring him a second term. The voters in the ‘I might not like what the man stands for, but I like the dollar in my pocket’ camp moved across to the ‘but what about the pandemic’ camp.

As the votes were counted, the result saw Donald Trump getting the second-highest number of votes in presidential history, 10 million more than the year he won. Unfortunately for his supporters, the person he was against received the highest number ever. This does strongly suggest that Trump was not a one-term wonder and there are still a large number of supporters for his politics. 

Now we’ve seen a property magnate leave the White House, does the future for real estate look less positive? I’m not sure anyone thinks the previous president did anything ground-breaking as far as CRE is concerned. The key right now is to ensure investors get the best strategic advice to ensure they avoid any unexpected slips on the metaphorical ice and emerge at the right time, in the right place, just like President Biden and Olympic gold medallist Bradbury before him

Whether the future sees (a) Trump back in office is of course unknown. And whether it would be Donald or Ivanka contesting an election, who can guess? The likelihood, though, is that there will be many crises between now and the next election round. Whether these play into the incumbent’s hands or, as with covid-19, derail a seemingly winning position is in the lap of the gods.