Two once-in-a-generation disruptors joined forces this year. Black swan events are defined as ‘random, unexpected, but high-impact events’. Over the past 12 months, the property sector salons in Cannes, two winter MAPICs and the springtime MIPIM, have been opportunities to observe the high impact of the twin swans – the health crisis and the energy crisis.
Some 1,000 days after the first appearance of the mystery flu, the intense Covid experiences have begun blurring into one long, anxious succession of lockdowns, curfews, vaccines and self-isolations. Pausing to reflect on the salons immobiliers is a chance to consider how these two big disruptors have been constantly reshaping behaviours over the past year.
“The big conference winners were Cannes’ cafés, with outdoor heated terraces in the wintry sunshine”
In December 2021, with the health crisis still Cannes’ top preoccupation, MAPIC’s attendance was slashed by a last-minute surge of omicron variant. In hindsight, that conference’s ‘hybrid’ model feels so autumn 2021, as organisers have since understood that merging physical and online attendees just feels clunky and uneven. Since wearing face masks was then so well-drilled, the must-have MAPIC 2021 fashion accessory was a Saudi Arabian luxury mask (with internal sand filter!). The conference did, however, feel Covid-safe as the fewer attendees wore face masks and were mainly breathing outdoors. The big conference winners were Cannes’ cafés, with outdoor heated terraces in the wintry sunshine.
If December 2021 was ‘The Masked Mapic’, then March 2022 was ‘The Unmasked MIPIM’, the start of the conference coinciding with the advent of la France démasquée – the much-anticipated Monday when France’s mask-wearing obligation ended. The result of this libération (whispered to be a vote-winner with the upcoming presidential election) was an odd mix of apprehension and post-hibernation euphoria. Pulling together 20,000 people from across borders certainly left many unwell after the event. There was, indeed, even a widespread nervous resignation to that outcome during the conference. Old salon behaviours returned – with people leaning in and shouting over background music at busy events. Unexpectedly, I found myself feeling edgy – both at indoor pinch points and at a crowded rooftop wine-tasting. Unlike MAPIC a few months earlier, MIPIM 2022 simply did not feel Covid-secure. Like thousands of others who were in Cannes, I duly caught the virus soon afterwards and experienced 10 days of fatigue and brain fog.
Only three weeks before MIPIM, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. The first moving pictures of European war damage had a heavy emotional clout and dialled down corporate excess and bling. The tone felt ‘leaner and cleaner’, with some very positive MIPIM outcomes: the salon experience, once a routine for the entitled, was again savoured, with attendees recalling the power of the chance physical meeting. Recent video call friendships were also cemented and I twice overheard, “Wow! I’ve only ever seen you on a screen!” The curious MIPIM of 2022 was absolutely a super-spreader, not just of viruses, but of ideas and shared experience, itself a vaccine against populist silo thinking.
December 2022’s MAPIC event in Cannes was dominated by the year’s second black swan, with the natural preoccupations of a retail conference being the rising cost of living, energy prices and inflation. As an investment product, retail property, already repriced by Covid, may finally no longer be ‘the sick man of property’. Nonetheless, the cost-of-living challenge in the coming months will be hard for shops and restaurants already battered by lockdowns.
“a few delegates put on extra layers to sit outside and watch World Cup football”
The French government’s (successful) sobriété énergétique policy has banned outside heaters and had, in doing so, visibly reduced the attraction of café terraces, although a few delegates put on extra layers to sit outside and watch World Cup football. Most were happy to rub shoulders and squeeze inside.
Even if the energy/cost of living crisis was MAPIC’s main preoccupation last week, the first black swan, the health crisis, was still floating somewhere in the bay of Cannes. Just as a new Covid wave is surging in France and hospitals are once more under pressure, it was striking that hands were again shaken with vigour and la bise (cheek-kissing) is back as a conference greeting. This Covid wave is the 9th in France, though most people here stopped counting after three or four.
Le MAPIC, now pushed into December, has an uncertain future since winter conferences have definitely proved vulnerable to surging virus outbreaks. Some conference organisers, such as the Urban Land Institute, have permanently moved their traditional early February event to the packed spring/summer schedule. Nine months after a super-spreading MIPIM, last week’s MAPIC felt low-energy, with the thermostat turned well down from its own historic standards of exuberance. Property professionals are said to have only two gears, bullish and cautiously optimistic. Last week in Cannes, the two black swans had certainly chased away any bulls whilst even cautious optimism felt thin on the ground.
