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A rounding error from a bygone age

by | Nov 23, 2017

Editorial Notes

A rounding error from a bygone age

by | Nov 23, 2017

This was a somewhat ‘noises off’ affair. The near future of UK plc, government finances and GDP will be determined not on this Finance Bill’s parliamentary stage but in Dublin. For 26 of the 27 remaining EU countries the new trading arrangements with the UK are of reasonable economic importance. For Dublin they are existential. The history of EU agreements and treaties is that the country whose national interests are most at stake gets what it wants. What Dublin wants it will probably get. What Dublin wants is frictionless trade with Northern Ireland. It also needs access to UK markets as close as possible to the status quo ante. The only way the EU can deliver this Irish requirement is for it to deliver an EU-wide deal for the UK that looks and smells like continuing full, unfettered access to the single market, including in services. This creeping realisation that the UK’s best ally in the Brexit negotiations is Dublin explains why our Foreign secretary has spent so much time there in the last couple of weeks, and why the Taisoch looked so nervous in his recent face to face photo opportunity with Prime Minister May. As set out in earlier editorials The Property Chronicle believes that during 2018 the market perception of what the UK will extract from the new EU trade deal will improve quickly and markedly. This will mean higher GDP, lower government borrowing, higher levels of business investment than forecast in today’s Red Book. We also expect, during 2018, higher London house and office block capital values. By this time next year the 2017 Budget will seem like a rounding error from a bygone age.

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