

When the shortage bros accidentally demonstrate that zoning is a trivial part of the story. Random Walk will make it two antagonistic posts in a row. Enjoy. housing shortage steelman payment-to-income ratios skyrocketing totally stagnant, if not lower debunking the...
US homes have been getting more affordable since the 70s

The best-case scenario for Trump’s second term
“God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” — Otto von Bismarck Happy Thanksgiving, folks! A friend asked me to write an optimistic post about the best-case scenario for the upcoming Trump presidency. So here is that post....
The best-case scenario for Trump’s second term

Commercial real estate turning a corner (and other real estate charts)
Commercial real estate turning a corner? CMBS special servicing rates keep rising (and that’s good) net-new distress is smaller conditions are getting Sloos desiderata on REITs, who loaded-up for a mortgage origination binge that wasn’t, permits per capita, and the...
Commercial real estate turning a corner (and other real estate charts)

Why can’t the US build ships?
For those of us worried about America’s ability to manufacture things, there’s no shortage of worrying indicators to point to. Manufacturing employment has fallen by a third from its peak in 1979, even as the population has grown by nearly 50% over the same...
Why can’t the US build ships?

It’s a renter’s market out there
Because there’s no housing shortage, among other reasons. the brand new apartments with the biggest discounts all time high of new apartment supply new units staying on the market longer (which is great news for renters) can’t squeeze rent increases from a stone...
It’s a renter’s market out there