In this election year in both the USA and the UK the traditional focus on swing constituencies/states is being challenged by the notion of the swing generation.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the younger voter potentially holds the key to election results in both nations.

In the United States, the influence of swing states in determining electoral outcomes has been a longstanding narrative. However, a shift is occurring as younger generations, armed with fresh perspectives and unique concerns, become a powerful force in shaping political discourse. 

This can be seen most emphatically in the very low levels of support President Biden has, amongst registered Democrat voters, for what is perceived as his administration’s “Pro-Israel“ foreign policy. Amongst younger Democrat voters the traditional “Israel right or wrong” archetype has been dismissed, and marches across the US show that, unless Biden does something to correct this, he will lose key states as the younger Democrat either opts for an independent third party or abstains.

This trend is reflective of a broader global movement where traditional party political positions are challenged by younger voters.

The United Kingdom is witnessing a similar transformation. Whereas in the US it is foreign policy that appears to be the wedge between generations, in the UK it is more prosaic; housing.

In particular, normal Tory suspects among the younger professional classes see no reason to support a party that has overseen a state of affairs where only those that inherit wealth can afford a deposit, and rents are unaffordable without parental help. The Boomer generation should not really be surprised that their younger colleagues appear not to be as committed to work, the workplace, long hours, corporate loyalty, and so on. It seems however hard we work, there is no prospect of ever owning our own home.

In the UK, younger professional voters’ lives are dominated by the challenge of finding affordable housing. The dream of homeownership, once a hallmark of the American and British middle class, is slipping away and, with it, possibly any firm attachment to the current capitalist policy mix. This reality has provoked discussions around interventionist housing policies, such as rent control, and younger voters are listening. Politicians who grasp this will win many young voters. 

Further, housing policies are seen as representative of a politician’s broader societal values: are you on the side of the “haves,” who want to keep all their capital gains, or the ambitious “to haves?” My generation will be swayed, I believe, not by historic, or familial attachment to past ideologies, but by practical initiatives that promote housing affordability, equitable access to homeownership, and sustainable urban development. 

In the UK, where the generational wealth gap is widening, the political landscape is becoming a battleground between the generation that “has” and the younger generation that “wants.” Acknowledging the concerns of younger voters is no longer a matter of political courtesy but a strategic imperative. The wealth gap between generations will become a real problem and, if not dealt with, could lead to opportunist politicians offering drastic, confiscatory policies. 

So, if the swing generation votes it will be a decisive force. The orthodoxy is that younger voters are less inclined to vote than their seniors and this may be true in 2024, in which case these underlying tensions will be put off for another cycle. But the longer they remain unresolved the more bitter they will become and more extreme solutions will be proposed.

The era of swing states may not be over, but the era of the swing generation is upon us. It is up to today’s moderate political figures and all generations to find ways to allow the younger generation to buy a house. Otherwise things could get nasty…