…and we simply don’t care enough.
The publication of the 3,949 page Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Report in early August elicited many different comments from governments, the media and individuals around the world. This is the sixth such report (and only part one of three) and likely to be the last one published while we still have a chance to remain under the 1.5 degree heat increase agreed at the Paris Climate Change Accord.
I was on vacation when the report was released, so actually had time to read it. To save you the trouble and time, the first 42 pages give you all you could need. If you want more, pages 2,891 to 3,002 are very useful and give details about observed trends and what they can be attributed to, and then the different issues that would arise at different levels of temperature increase. The remainder is made up of further detail and excellent reference points. There aren’t appropriate words to describe the situation we will find ourselves in unless we take immediate and life-changing action.
It was disappointing to experience the speed at which the news cycle moved on from the report launch. On the day it came out, the news was deemed headline worthy and many experts came out to share their views. There was much collective handwringing about how terrible it all is. The day after launch (remember this is one of the most important, landmark reports that will be published in our lifetimes) we saw…nothing, nada, tumbleweed in the streets. It was almost as if people saw the headlines, shook their heads and said, “Tut, tut, how terrible” and then went back on with their lives.
As a comparison, the Covid-19 pandemic rightly dominated our news cycle for the past 500 days or so, but the climate change issue is many magnitudes more critical to address. The challenge is the short term, immediate versus the long term, gradual. We know if we wear masks and take the vaccine our chances of getting through the pandemic are increased. There is no personal financial cost to either measure, the impact on our lives frustrating though it may be, is short lived. There have been millions of people whose lives ended because of the pandemic, and it is right we mourn every one of those people. Addressing climate change does not minimise the suffering of people and on a global level it will alleviate future suffering.
“Lobby groups around the world and different governments have done a great job in distracting people from what is important”
We all care, we all recognise that the climate is changing and not for the better. I’m not presuming to speak for you, but the science is incontrovertible and most people accept that humans are having a negative impact on the environment. What is less certain is what we do about the changes we’re seeing. There is no agreement where to focus or what to do. Lobby groups around the world and different governments have done a great job in distracting people from what is important.
The vast political machine in the US runs on the donations or funding of ‘interest’ groups – in the year 2019-2020, circa $7b was contributed to political parties and their representatives by the top 13 industries giving money. Companies and individuals do not commit their support without an expectation of something in return. The decisions made by the legislature are obviously influenced by external sources and that’s part of the political machine.
China is the world’s biggest emitter by some measure: 27% of the world’s greenhouse gases in 2019 (the US emits 11%, India 6%). One of the challenges faced is the fact that China’s CO2 emissions won’t peak until 2030. It’s human nature that we don’t want to be disadvantaged and the difficulty for the upcoming COP26 conference will be to persuade countries to restrict even further when China is continuing along its emissions journey.
As with most things in life, we’ll get 80% of the results by focusing on 20% of those responsible. The top 10% of emitters globally, the wealthiest 10%, are responsible for up to 45% of emissions, 10 times as much as the poorest 10% who are responsible for between 3% and 5%. The top 1% account for 50% of emissions from aviation and similar contrasts abound. The average emission-intensive Western diet produces 50% more emissions than a plant-based diet (a simple way to achieve a massive change).
In terms of investment, we are woefully behind where we need to be. In 2018, $546b went towards cutting greenhouse gases and building resilience to the impacts of the climate crisis. A huge amount of money to anyone, but when compared to the period 1 Jan 2020 to 27 Jun 2021 (so 18 months instead of 12) and the amount spent to counter the impact of COVID-19, a staggering $21.8tn, In the order of 40 times more money, was spent on Covid than on climate change measures. If any government says the money isn’t there it’s simply untrue. The money is there, but perhaps the desire and the votes are not to invest what we need to.
The alternative to achieving net zero by 2050 does not bear thinking about. Food shortages, civil unrest, governments falling, increase in waterborne diseases, poor air quality to name a few. These are not ethereal concepts and pronouncements from extreme activists, these are stated comments from NASA, National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, Departments of commerce and industry – hardly the most hysterical bodies and certainly not typically prone to hyperbole.
As an industry of interest – the built environment being responsible for 40% of the UK’s total carbon footprint – are we doing enough? According to the UK Green Building Council, 80% of the buildings that will exist in 2050 have already been built. There are tremendous developments underway regarding the building of shiny, new, connected, integrated, green offices, homes, life science parks, but what about the 80%? If the 80:20 rule is applied, what exactly are we doing about retrofitting, refurbishing, redeveloping and repurposing existing assets? I’d be so bold as to suggest not enough, nowhere near enough.
Is it likely those of us in the property industry will take it upon ourselves to make all the changes that are needed? I’d love to answer yes, absolutely, but that would be untrue. We all operate in businesses looking to turn a profit, deliver growth for our shareholders or investors. If society in general will not make the changes required to slow climate change, how can any sector or industry be expected to do so in isolation? It simply won’t happen.
Although never an advocate for big government, I must accept that without their intervention, legislation, direction and support, the changes needed will not take place. A global study undertaken on behalf of the Global Commons Alliance released on 17 August found 75% of people in the world’s wealthiest nations believe humanity is pushing the planet towards a dangerous tipping point and support a shift of priorities away from economic profit. This answer does not surprise, but when the detail behind what this means comes to light there are likely to be many that change their view. If a reduction in profits means smaller or no pay rises, or drastically reduced bonuses, who will be putting their hands up then?
The change needed must be legislated and enforced. There must be some meaning behind the words of many that being sustainable is as important to us as making money. If this is the case, why do so many companies have so few people focused on all matters sustainable? Why is there not a board member on every FTSE company solely charged with tackling the biggest threat to our planet’s survival?
It has been said so many times before, but this really is the last chance we have to make significant, impactful change. It would be fitting and incredibly significant if those of us who work in the amazing, wonderful, exciting world of property were to take the lead, drive and indeed direct change.
Perhaps we can look forward to the day when we introduce ourselves as environmentalists that work in the property sector as opposed to property specialists. This is how we all need to think, this is how we all need to behave and this is what we all must deliver.
