Steven Reid, Secretary of State for the Environment, said at the recent Oxford Farming Conference that food security is national security. Unfortunately, government policies are heading the UK towards food insecurity.
The way the country uses its land is the central point in the food security debate. Land area is finite and land use is changing at a rapid rate. Relaxation in planning guidance (NPPF National Planning Policy Guidance) will make it easier to transfer agricultural land to other uses. In particular plans to build more homes on so called grey belt could have a big impact. Recently the countryside charity the CPRE has pointed out that 11% of farmland is in green belt yet this area produces a disproportionally high amount of food. CPRE suggest that this land yields a fifth of the country’s cereals, 14% of potatoes and 13% of milk. A lot of land loss to farming is associated with the drive to net zero. Natural England have suggested in a recent report that food production could decline by 25% if measures to meet the most ambitious targets are enacted.
There are some measurable and significant land use changes. The area of utilized agricultural area was 18 million hectares in 2005 but is now 17 million hectares and declining. Land being used for energy purposes is one of the main drivers of change. In 2023 133000 hectares of agricultural land was used to grow bio energy crops and it is suggested that this will increase by 23000 hectares a year. Solar farms currently account for 30000 hectares and to hit net zero targets will require at least 84000 hectares if this increase is land based. This means that in the next few years 8% of the crop-able area of the UK could be lost. In addition housing targets of 1.5 million homes could lead to a further loss of 48000 hectares plus additional infrastructure impacts.
The main government agricultural policies revolve around the Higher Tier Countryside Stewardship Scheme and the Sustainable Farming Initiative. These schemes are admirable environmental policies, but in many cases will lead to lower food production levels or remove farmland completely in, for example, rewilding schemes.
There is therefore an urgent need for a national land use strategy, something that has been long promised but has not been delivered. This strategy must protect valuable food producing land and include proposals for a better system of measuring such land.
The UK produces 60% of all the food it consumes but when food exports are included the figure falls to 54%. To maintain this level of sufficiency will require more production on less land and this is unlikely since crop yields have been reasonably consistent over the last twenty years. Indeed 2024 yields were significantly down wheat by 20%, oil seed rape by 32% and potatoes by 9%. Weather extremes resulting almost certainly from climate change caused these reductions. Climate change is undoubtedly the elephant in the room when it comes to UK food production.
There are other factors affecting UK food self-sufficiency, not least population. The UK population is 68 million and is set to increase to around 74 million by 2026 primarily fueled by net migration currently over 700000/year.
Less land in production and more mouths to feed means more food importation, which could soon become 50% of our national food needs. An analysis of where the UK imports its food from shows a considerable vulnerability of supply for a number of products with climate change being a significant factor. Reliance on food imports is a dangerous policy when it comes to food security.
Government must put home based food production at the heart of its rural policies. These policies must include the production of a strong land use strategy with an appropriate land grading system. The strategy must have a proper balance between environmental schemes and those relating to food production. Other factors such as inheritance tax affecting small family farms need to be reconsidered.
If changes are not made then current policies will lead to food insecurity. In the short term this will be seen by food price inflation and food poverty and in the medium to long term by food shortages.
