We take it for granted that we can go to a supermarket and buy all the food we need or get it delivered. However, as we look forward, that may not always be the case.
The UK currently imports 40% of all food needs. This is likely to soon exceed 50%, because of population growth, land loss, stabilising crop yields, climate change and problems with supply chains. Food security must be a central plank of government policy. The recently published National Food Strategy (July 2021) states that “Securing the nation’s food supply has been a central role of all states since history began.” This article considers the factors affecting UK food supply.
UK population growth. There are various predictions and some suggest a possible slowdown in growth, particularly since we do not know the effect of migration policy post Brexit. However, the majority of official predictions still suggest a UK population of at least 70 million by 2030 and 77 million by 2050. UK population growth related to food importation must also take into account world population statistics. The world population in 2021 is estimated at 7.8 billion and increasing at just over 1% a year, meaning an additional 81 million a year and suggesting a world population of 9 billion by 2037.
“A study by the UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology suggested a loss of two million acres between 1990 and 2025”
UK land loss. Average land loss to UK agriculture has been assessed at 40,000 hectares (96,000 acres) a year and rising. In reality, the figure could be a lot higher, with woodland targets set at 30,000 hectares a year, and infrastructure projects and housing expanding and increasing land usage. A study by the UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology suggested a loss of two million acres between 1990 and 2025, and a study by the University of Cambridge 2014 suggested a land shortfall to farming of two million hectares (4.8 million acres) by 2030. Every projection shows that loss of productive land and new environmental schemes, while fundamentally a good thing, will reduce food productivity; the same applies to woodland areas. Land being used for energy purposes, eg, the production of biofuels or for solar farms, will further reduce the food-growing areas, eg, the three major proposals in Essex, Cambridgeshire and Kent will take up 4,400 acres. There are around 300 solar farm proposals currently in the pipeline in England.
UK crop yields. In general terms, all the evidence suggests that crop yields have remained flat in the period 2010 to 2020, so any reduction in land area could not be compensated by higher yields. Wheat, for example, has remained at a five-year average of 8.4 t per ha and 2020 saw a yield reduction of 15%, and the wet autumn of 2020 saw the wheat area down by 24% year on year, meaning a further shortfall in home production in 2021. Similar figures have been produced for oil seed rape.
Climate change and food production. A report from the University of Minnesota in conjunction with other universities has stated that the world’s top 10 crops (barley, cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, sugar cane, wheat) supply 83% of all calories produced on crop land. They state that yields have long been projected to decrease and that new research now shows that climate change has already affected production of these key energy sources. The average reduction is 1% and the impacts are greatest in Europe, Southern Africa and Australia. A UN report in 2019 stated that 10% of the world’s population was undernourished and “climate change will accelerate the rate of severe food shortages”. A report from the European Environment Agency in the same year said, “Crops and livestock production is projected to decrease and may even have to be abandoned in Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions…. Any benefits would be outweighed by the increase in extreme events negatively affecting the sector”. Specific examples in Europe include Spain, where two-thirds of the country is considered to be vulnerable to increasing desertification and accelerated soil erosion. Many African countries will be severely affected. For example, 98% of Kenya’s agricultural activity is rain fed and highly susceptible to climate change. In the USA, research (USDA Tech Bull. 1935) indicates that climate change will lead to a decline in yield and nutrient density in key crops as well as decreased livestock productivity.
Climate change will also have an impact on food production in the UK, particularly severe weather conditions affecting crop yields. A report on food security in the House of Commons library (2020) states that climate change will produce significant risks to UK food supply.
Sources of food imports into the UK. Forty percent of all food consumed in the UK is imported (25% of indigenous food types). Thirty percent of all the food that is imported comes from the EU, 19% of fruit and vegetables come from Spain and 11% from the Netherlands. Overall, 45% of vegetables are imported and 84% of fruit; with 4% of food imports coming from Africa, with Kenya and South Africa being the dominant countries. A further 4% of food imports come from North America and 4% from South America. The majority of wheat the UK imports comes from the EU and 25% of wheat for flour is imported.
An analysis of food imports to the UK against climate change impacts suggests that several countries the UK imports from will face problems. These include the EU and Spain in particular. Africa and especially Kenya and South Africa will also be hard hit by climate change. There will also be significant impacts in Australia and some South American countries.
Food supply chains. UK food supply chains are very fragile. This has been well illustrated by the pandemic, Brexit and the recent shortage of lorry drivers.
In the above analysis the one item we have some control over is land use. When land use changes there is a trade-off. \Sometimes this is acceptable and sometimes not. The National Food Strategy identified the fact much of the land best suited to nature restoration and carbon removal produces little food, but good farm land must be protected.
There is in existence in the UK a land classification system. This places land in six classes (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 4 & 5). Classes 1, 2 and 3a are termed the best and most versatile land and enjoy some degree of planning protection; and 3b land should be included in this protection as it can also produce good crop yields.
A good example of poor land use is placing solar farms on BMV and 3b grade land. Renewable energy is essential and solar has a part to play in the right place, which is poor grade land of low environmental value, commercial roof space and brownfield sites.
The National Food Strategy recommends a national land use model with land identified in various categories, one of which would be high yield farms. This land must be protected, something the author identified many years ago when he was awarded a Churchill scholarship to study land use in Japan.
Our land is finite; it must be used in the right way. Planners and politicians must be vigilant and aware that if the nation runs short of food a disaster will be on their hands.
